USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
Within the price range between the most recent low and the last swing high, an uptrend has formed on the lower timeframes.
On the weekly chart, the outlook remains bearish until the last swing high line is clearly broken to the upside.
Will the price rise again toward the last swing high line,
or will it continue to decline from here?
Daily
Uptrend.
As long as the last swing low line is not clearly broken to the downside,
the daily outlook remains bullish.
After rebounding from the last swing high on the weekly chart, the price dropped to around the last swing low on the daily chart and is now consolidating.
If the daily chart’s last swing low line is broken to the downside, I expect the bearish bias to strengthen further.
4-Hour
An upward Wave 1 has formed, breaking the downtrend, and afterward, the price failed to close below the end of Wave 1 with a candle body and bounced back.
Therefore, since the recent high has not been updated, the outlook remains bullish unless the starting point of Wave 1 is clearly broken to the downside.
Whether the current wave will develop into an upward Wave 3 is the question.
If it does become Wave 3, there is room for the price to extend up to around the yellow zone shown in the image.
1-Hour
A sharp rise occurred, and the price is now moving within that range.
Until the price breaks out of this range in either direction, there may be a lack of clear trend.
Trade Strategies
Aiming for the upward Wave 3 on the 4-hour chart, I am considering a long position around the price zone shown in the image.
However, since it is in the middle of the range, there is a risk that the price may move without clear direction, so caution is needed.
The 21 SMA and 200 EMA on the 4-hour chart may also function as support.
If the highest price on the 4-hour chart is broken with a candle body close, I will look for a pullback buy on the lower time frames.
However, the potential range to capture is short, and there is also a resistance line that may come into play immediately after entry, so caution is required.
