USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
The price has been moving within a range of approximately 152.00 to 140.00 and is currently in the upper 143 yen area.
Since the 5th wave of the downtrend isn’t extending smoothly, there is growing anticipation for a possible bullish reversal.
Daily
Uptrend.
Price is fluctuating within the 148.50 to 142.30 range.
A double bottom has formed near the last significant swing low, and while the slanted neckline was slightly broken, the price was ultimately rejected.
The key question is whether the swing low area will act as support again, leading to a rebound, or whether the price will break below it.
4-hour
Uptrend.
Although the recent high was pierced with a wick, the candle body has not closed above it, so the price remains in an upward bias within the 142.5–145.1 range.
Hourly
Downtrend.
After a candle body breakout above the recent 4-hour high, the trend reversed into a downtrend.
A strong bullish candle has just appeared, pushing the price back up near the origin of the recent low.
Trade Strategies
Strategy①
Wait for the price to rise near the origin of the most recent low on the 1-hour chart, then look for a short entry.
Confirm a trend reversal on a lower timeframe before entering.
The target take-profit level is around the current recent low.
However, note that the 5-wave downtrend on the 1-hour chart may have completed, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal.
Strategy②
If the 1-hour chart shifts from a downtrend to an uptrend, look to go long targeting the 3rd wave of the new uptrend.
Strategy③
Consider a long position near the origin of the most recent high on the 4-hour chart.
If this level is broken downward and confirmed on the 4-hour timeframe, shift to a bearish bias and look for short opportunities.
Postscript Trade Strategies
Strategy①
The 1-hour downtrend has ended, and the 1st wave of an uptrend appears to be in play.
Wait for the 2nd wave pullback, then enter a long trade aiming for the 3rd wave.
