USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
Currently in wave 5 of the Elliott Wave count, but it’s unclear whether the price will decline to the end of wave 3 or start reversing into an uptrend soon.
Daily
Uptrend.
The price is rebounding for the second time from the most recent swing low.
A potential double bottom has formed, but the neckline was rejected with a long wick. Lower timeframes show resistance forming around that price zone.
4-hour
The most recent swing high from the previous downtrend has been broken.
Higher highs and higher lows are forming, indicating an uptrend.
The key focus is how deep the current correction goes before the next upward move begins.
Hourly
Uptrend.
The exact location of the most recent swing low is unclear.
The price rebounded from the level where the recent sharp rally started and is currently hovering around the 50% retracement of that move.
Trade Strategies
Strategy①
Trend-following long entries on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
If the price corrects back to the area near the starting point of the recent sharp rally on the 1-hour chart, consider a long entry from that level.
However, caution is needed—if the price returns to that zone, it may indicate weakening buying pressure and potential for a bearish reversal.
Strategy②
A descending trendline can be drawn on the daily chart.
If the price breaks above this line, consider timing a long entry based on confirmation.
Strategy③
Trend-following on the 4-hour chart and countertrend long on the 1-hour chart.
If the 1-hour chart begins to form a downtrend, interpret it as a correction within the 4-hour uptrend and look for long opportunities accordingly.
