USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
I use “XMTRADING” as my trading tool.
It is my personal most trusted trading account and is used by many professional traders.
I use “TradingView” as my analysis tool.
Registering an account gives you access to many features for free.
Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
We are currently in a situation where the fifth wave of decline may extend further,
but it gives the impression that a reversal to an upward trend is starting to take shape.
There is still ongoing contention between the buying and selling forces,
and there is a possibility that volatility will continue to squeeze.
Daily
In an upward trend, the price rebounded twice at the base line where the recent high was formed.
It formed something like a double bottom,
but instead of rising straightforwardly, it first went through a correction before climbing again.
It is currently hovering around the midpoint of the price range between 142.3 yen and 148.5 yen.
4-Hour
Uptrend.
The resistance line at 145.100 yen, which had been tested multiple times,
was broken to the upside, giving the impression of strengthening bullish momentum.
However, prominent previous highs may act as resistance,
so entering a long position carelessly is not advisable.
1-Hour
It’s a clearly visible uptrend.
A significant correction could occur at any time,
but given the strong bullish momentum,
there is also a possibility that the price will continue rising
toward the recent daily high.
Trade Strategies
Strategy①
Enter a long position based on price action
near the support-resistance flip line or the recent higher low on the 4-hour chart.
The 21-period SMA on the 4-hour chart may also serve as a potential buy-on-dip point,
so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
If the price breaks below the recent higher low on the 4-hour chart,
it’s better to stay out rather than take a short position and just observe the movement.
Strategy②
If the trend shifts downward on the 1-hour chart,
wait for the second wave retracement and aim for the third wave of the downtrend.
However, since the higher timeframes show strong bullish momentum,
any short position should be taken as a short-term trade.
