USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
We are currently in a situation where the fifth wave of decline may extend further,
but it gives the impression that a reversal to an upward trend is starting to take shape.
There is still ongoing contention between the buying and selling forces,
and there is a possibility that volatility will continue to squeeze.
Daily
The overall outlook remains bullish within the 142.3 to 148.5 yen range, but the price is currently falling, erasing much of the recent upward movement.
While it initially seemed likely to continue rising, there is now a possibility that it may return to the lower end of the range.
4-Hour
The first wave of decline occurred, and it seems to be the third wave now.
However, it didn’t just straightforwardly extend downwards; instead, it rebounded and rose around ¥143.750.
1-Hour
The 4-hour chart’s second downward wave didn’t form cleanly on the 1-hour chart; instead, it continued to decline.
It looks like the drop was due to stop-losses from traders who were looking to buy on the dip, expecting an upward trend on the 1-hour chart.
Currently, the bias remains bearish, and an uptrend is forming on the lower timeframes within the range between the recent low and the starting point that created it.
Trade Strategies
Strategy①
Aiming for the 3rd downward wave on the 4-hour chart.
The 1-hour chart is also currently bearish, so I’m considering a short entry when the lower timeframe trend breaks.
I’m watching for a trendline break or a trend reversal on the shorter timeframes.
Strategy②
If the 1-hour chart shifts to a bullish outlook, I’ll aim for short-term long positions.
However, since the 4-hour chart has a strong selling bias, I’ll keep the risk controlled when trading.
Strategy③
If the price returns near the last swing high on the 4-hour chart, I’ll consider a short entry around that area.
However, if it rises that much, the selling pressure might weaken, potentially shifting the market back into an uptrend.
