USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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Waveforms of each time leg
Monthly
The price has bounced twice from the last swing low of the uptrend.
As of now, the bullish outlook remains intact.
Currently, the price is hovering around the halfway point between the recent high and the last swing low.
Weekly
Last week, the price climbed up to the area around the final swing high of the previous downtrend, but was strongly pushed back down—partly due to the impact of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release.
Since that swing high level hasn’t been clearly broken to the upside, the weekly outlook remains bearish.
Daily
There was a sharp drop of over 350 pips at the end of last week, but since the price has not yet broken below the last swing low of the uptrend, the daily outlook remains bullish.
The current price is aligned with the 21-period moving average, which could attract buying interest at this level.
4-Hour
While fundamentals may be playing a significant role, a potential first wave of a downward move has formed, breaking the prior uptrend.
The market now appears to be in a corrective phase.
1-Hour
The uptrend has been broken, and the outlook has shifted to bearish.
Since the swing high is somewhat unclear, I’ll keep an eye on the 147.9 yen area as a potential key level.
Trade Strategies
A pullback sell is being considered, targeting the 3rd wave of the downtrend on the 4-hour chart.
If the price retraces up to the area around the last swing low of the previous uptrend, I’ll look for a short entry, anticipating a resistance-turned-support (resistance becoming resistance again) setup.
Also keeping a close eye on the 21-period moving average on the 4-hour chart.
If the current price continues to consolidate sideways, I will consider a short entry near the upper boundary of the range.
If the short-term upward momentum is strong and selling pressure appears weak around the 4-hour swing low, I’ll consider a buy-on-the-dip setup, targeting the previous sharp drop as a potential recovery move.
