USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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各時間足の波形
Weekly
This is the 5th wave of a downtrend.
The price is above the half price of the 4th wave and may stop soon.
Daily
Uptrend.
The last return high that created a downward wave was broken with slight substance.
Currently in a second rebound at the starting point that made the highest high.
4-hour
Downtrend 4 wave.
The price has risen to near the last return high and is struggling in the short term.
A clash between buying forces on the daily and selling forces on the 4-hourly.
This is a good position for a return sale.
Hourly
Uptrend.
The price has risen to near the starting point that created 3 waves down on the 4-hour time frame and is struggling.
We are waiting for another rise from the current price, formation of the fifth wave on the hourly scale, and formation of a double top.
Trade Strategies
Strategy①
Short 4-hour forward and 1-hour reverse.
Aiming for a descending 5 wave on the 4 hourly.
As 4 waves up on the 1-hour leg, wait for the 5th wave to enter.
A range is forming on the 15-minute leg, so pull back to the upper end of the range and go short.
Strategy②
Long entry on the daily uptrend.
Once the last return high on the 4-hour leg is confirmed by the 4-hour candlestick entity, the downtrend is broken.
Go long waiting for a push at the resistance turnaround on the short term leg.
Strategy③
If the currently formed range is broken above, go long early in anticipation of a break in the downtrend at 4 hours.
If it comes back to the lower end of the range again, consider going long.
Postscript Trade Strategies
Strategy①
If the last push low is broken down, the price will switch to the downside on the 1-hour timeframe following the 4-hour timeframe, so consider shorting.
If possible, we would like to wait for a reversal, but there is a possibility that the sharp rise to the left will be eaten up all at once, so we will consider jumping on the bandwagon as soon as it breaks.
Strategy②
If the 1-hour high is broken, the downtrend ends on the 4-hour time frame and the uptrend continues on the 1-hour time frame, so we will go long.
We are not sure if the resistance/support conversion line will work, but we will wait for a push to that area and enter the market when the trend is broken on the short term leg.
