USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
Within the price range between the most recent low and the last swing high, an uptrend has formed on the lower timeframes.
On the weekly chart, the outlook remains bearish until the last swing high line is clearly broken to the upside.
Will the price rise again toward the last swing high line,
or will it continue to decline from here?
Daily
Uptrend.
As long as the last swing low line is not clearly broken to the downside,
the daily outlook remains bullish.
After rebounding from the last swing high on the weekly chart, the price dropped to around the last swing low on the daily chart and is now consolidating.
If the daily chart’s last swing low line is broken to the downside, I expect the bearish bias to strengthen further.
4-Hour
An initial upward wave has formed, breaking the recent downtrend.
After a pullback, the price is now rising toward the recent high.
Since the current high has not yet been surpassed with a candlestick body, the outlook remains bullish as long as the line marking the starting point of the most recent high is not clearly broken to the downside.
Whether the current wave will become Elliott Wave 3 of the upward trend remains to be seen.
If the recent high is surpassed, there is potential for the price to rise up to the yellow zone shown in the chart above.
1-Hour
A sharp rally has occurred, and the price is now moving within that range.
For the moment, the outlook remains bullish unless the starting line of that rally is clearly broken to the downside.
The price has now risen to the most recent high, and it is gradually squeezing.
Trade Strategies
Place an early buy order in anticipation of a breakout above the recent high lines on both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
Consider going long after pulling back to the ascending trendline on the 5-minute chart.
If the 4-hour candlestick body breaks above the recent high, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks in the lower timeframes.
Update
The price has retraced to the ascending trendline, but since the 5-minute chart has shifted to a bearish outlook, there is a possibility that selling pressure could temporarily strengthen.
Pay attention to the price action near the lower boundary of the current consolidation range.
If the price declines further, focus on the price action around the previous high of the recent uptrend.
Also, keep an eye on the 21-period moving average on the 1-hour chart.
