USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
I use “XMTRADING” as my trading tool.
It is my personal most trusted trading account and is used by many professional traders.
I use “TradingView” as my analysis tool.
Registering an account gives you access to many features for free.
Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
Within the price range between the most recent low and the last swing high, an uptrend has formed on the lower timeframes.
On the weekly chart, the outlook remains bearish until the last swing high line is clearly broken to the upside.
Will the price rise again toward the last swing high line,
or will it continue to decline from here?
Daily
Uptrend.
As long as the last swing low line is not clearly broken to the downside,
the daily outlook remains bullish.
After rebounding from the last swing high on the weekly chart, the price dropped to around the last swing low on the daily chart and is now consolidating.
If the daily chart’s last swing low line is broken to the downside, I expect the bearish bias to strengthen further.
4-Hour
An upward Wave 1 has formed, breaking the downtrend, and afterward, the price failed to close below the end of Wave 1 with a candle body and bounced back.
Therefore, since the recent high has not been updated, the outlook remains bullish unless the starting point of Wave 1 is clearly broken to the downside.
I expected an upward Wave 3 in the Elliott Wave, but since the price isn’t extending smoothly, there’s a possibility it may either form a range or volatility may start to squeeze.
At the moment, the pullback low line of the uptrend on the lower time frames is acting as support and the price is rebounding.
1-Hour
A sharp rise occurred, and the price is now moving within that range.
Until the price breaks out of this range in either direction, there may be a lack of clear trend.
Trade Strategies
I am considering a long position near the lower limit of the range.
Focus will be on the previously respected support line or the price action at the range bottom.
If the price rises directly from the current level, I will stay out.
Since the upside is heavy, I am also considering a short position near the range top, even though it would be countertrend against the higher time frames.
