USDJPY Market Analysis and Trading Strategies.
*Personal Opinion
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Waveforms of each time leg
Weekly
Downtrend.
The price once rose to the last swing high line but failed to break above it and rebounded.
The outlook remains bearish until the last swing high line is clearly broken to the upside.
Daily
Uptrend.
The outlook remains bullish until the last swing low is clearly broken to the downside.
After falling to around the last swing low line, the market has entered a range.
The price has once again approached the area around the last swing low line.
4-Hour
A downward Wave 1 has formed, breaking the uptrend and shifting the outlook to bearish.
The outlook remains bearish until the starting line of the downward Wave 1 is clearly broken to the upside.
It appears to be in the downward Wave 3, and the price has dropped to around the end of Wave 1.
The blue line shown in the image is the last swing low line on the daily chart.
1-Hour
A sharp drop occurred, breaking the uptrend and shifting the outlook to bearish.
As with the 4-hour chart, the outlook remains bearish until the starting point of the recent lowest low is clearly broken to the upside.
Trade Strategies
A short entry targeting the downward Wave 3 on the 4-hour chart.
There is a possibility of a rebound at the end of Wave 1, but I plan to enter early, expecting a break of the recent low.
If I wait until after the recent low is broken to enter, the potential range to capture may shrink, and the risk-to-reward ratio could worsen.
Since a downtrend is forming on the 5-minute chart, I will look to identify pullback points and aim for short entries.
